« Mystery Authors | Main | Gospel of Mark - Part 1 »
November 03, 2006
Keys - Catastrophe
David Keys Catastrophe An Investigation Into the Origins of the Modern World copyright 1999 Ballantine Books New York
David Keys is a London based journalist who specializes in reporting on archeology. He discovered the occurrence of a global natural disaster in 535 AD, then spent four years researching and writing this book, including consultations with dozens of scientific experts. The book explores the enormous short and long term effects of that disaster.
The natural disaster was a volcanic explosion between Java and Sumatra in what is now Indonesia. It was much larger than any other catastrophe (e.g. meteors, other volcanoes...) in the last 50,000 years. The event can be deduced from tree rings studies in many parts of the world, ice core studies in Greenland, Antarctica, and glaciers in the Andes, geological studies in Indonesia, and written records in Indonesia, China, and the Mediterranean area.
The immediate effect - beyond destruction in Indonesia - was on climate. Ash and fine particles high in the atmosphere greatly weakened sunshine reaching the earth. The sky over most of the globe was darkened for a year and a half and took almost two decades to recover full brightness. Crops failed, grazing lands dried up, trees stopped growing, and both wildlife and domestic animals were greatly stressed. There was severe drought because the sun was not evaporating water over the ocean nor driving winds to bring that moisture over land. Inexplicably (I wish Keys has consulted a climatologist) there were also episodes of uniquely heavy rains flooding land and bursting dams.
The unprecedented drought had different effects on different human ecosystems. For societies based on agriculture, drought did the most harm where population was most densely concentrated. Urban areas and densely populated core areas of political powers were hardest hit, resulting in a transfer of power to the periphery. In the central and east Asian steppe (e.g. Mongolia) the low lands which were good pasture dried up. The ruling tribes, which based their power on well-fed horses, were crippled while more backward tribes in the mountains and forests gained an advantage.
The second horrific effect of the catastrophe was plague. There are reservoirs of plague in wildlife, specifically small rodents, in various remote areas of the world. Fifteen centuries ago an important reservoir was in central Africa a few hundred miles from the Indian Ocean coast. The extreme drought killed off many of the small rodents and their predators. When rains returned the rodents reproduced much more rapidly than their predators creating a temporary imbalance. The area where plague was endemic expanded, reaching the coast and Indian Ocean ports.
Plague spread to other species, especially rats, and from the African ports it then moved to Yemen, Egypt, the whole Mediterranean, Europe, and points east. There was a global pandemic which waxed and waned for over a century. The plague too affected human populations differently. Again, societies at the center were most harmed. Cities, densely populated areas, seaports, and areas connected to global trade were much more devastated than isolated or less densely populated societies. Again, the balance of power tended to shift to the periphery.
Politics and History
Most of Keys' book is devoted to the effects of the catastrophe on geopolitics and history. There are three areas on the globe I can think of which are remote, impoverished, sparsely populated and suffer under a harsh climate, which nonetheless have had an enormous impact on history; the Arabian desert, Mongolia and east Asian grasslands, and central Sweden. Sweden has been quiet since the remarkable outpouring of Germanic tribes in the centuries around the time of Christ. The other two were stressed by drought and plague after the catastrophe but found enormous opportunity as a result.
In Mongolia at the time of the catastrophe a tribe of people called Avars ruled. Their power was based on the use of horses in warfare. The horse is a great instrument of war; quick, highly mobile, able to graze and be self-sufficient far from home. Once your soldiers mastered cavalry warfare your armies were almost invincible. But a weakness of the horse is a somewhat inefficient digestive system. If it can't find good fodder the horse is in trouble. Sever drought killed the grass which killed the horses which caused the Avars to be defeated by their rebellious subjects, the Turks. Avars were driven out of their homeland. They fled to the west.
In later centuries the Turks made their own mark on history, in central Asia, the Middle East, eastern Europe and the Balkans, and the Indian subcontinent. But back to the Avars. They ended up in eastern Europe and the Ukraine. They still had some horses which found good pasture in the new locale. In this new neighborhood the Avars devoted themselves to war and extortion on a massive scale. They excelled in both endeavors.
The object of their attention was the rich "Roman" (really Byzantine) Empire. They repeatedly defeated the Romans and extorted astonishing amounts of gold. This alone would force Byzantium close to bankruptcy, but it was only the beginning. The Avars allied themselves with local barbarians, the Slavs, who were agricultural so they did not compete economically with the Avars. Being a pastoral people the Avars did not have a large population. The Slavs gave Avar military campaigns much additional weight. In due course the Slavs, under the Avar military umbrella, overran the Balkan peninsula all the way to the Mediterranean. An area of Europe that had been prosperous, peaceful, united, civilized and integrated into the Mediterranean world passed into deep darkness from which it is still struggling to emerge.
Loss of the Balkans compounded Byzantium's financial problems and cut off its main source of military recruits. The Empire was enormously weakened, and its remaining subjects were crushed by taxes as the state tried to maintain itself. A rebellion occurred with predictable violence and atrocities, and which managed to upset a delicate peace with Persia. Decades of war with Persia ensued, which greatly weakened both Persians and "Romans."
At that point Mohammed stormed out of the second region I mentioned, Arabia. Islam expanded into a Middle East and eastern Mediterranean region of exhausted, bankrupt governments, emasculated armies, collapsed economies, and populations reeling from disease and seething with rebellion. Islam's victory was almost a foregone conclusion.
Keys goes on to discuss the effects of the catastrophe a number of countries and regions of the world. A couple of examples; in the 6th Century the Franks, a German tribe, had conquered most of what is now France. They choose to base their reign in the less populated, less prosperous north rather than in the south which had a higher population and more wealth. When the plague came the south was more seriously devastated. The Frankish rule ended up being on an even more sound foundation than before. Their kingdom and its descendants evolved into the modern nation we know.
Great Britain in the 6th Century was a country divided in half with the Germans (Angles, Saxons, etc.) occupying the east of what became England and the Britons (Celtic people formerly part of the Roman Empire) occupying the west. The two peoples had little interaction. The Britons continued to have extensive trade and cultural contact with Mediterranean world. When ships carried the plague from the eastern Mediterranean outward, you can guess who experienced the epidemic. Britons died in large numbers but Anglo-Saxons were hardly affected. They then proceeded to conquer almost the whole island.
This is a very interesting book with a perspective on history I had not previously seen.
Posted by rob at November 3, 2006 06:45 AM
Comments
Posted by: Anonymous at November 3, 2006 06:45 AM